Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu is heading toward a strong box office debut, with the Disney and Lucasfilm release projected to earn between $97 million and $98 million in North America across the four-day Memorial Day weekend.
The new theatrical adventure, directed by Jon Favreau, earned an estimated $25.5 million on Saturday, helping lift its holiday weekend forecast. Some rival studios believe the film could still reach the $100 million mark, though Disney has not yet raised its own estimate to that level. International ticket sales are reportedly approaching $69 million, although that figure had not been officially confirmed by Disney at the time of reporting. If the estimate holds, the film could finish its opening period with about $167 million worldwide.
Audience Response Gives New Star Wars Film an Early Boost
Moviegoers who watched The Mandalorian and Grogu gave the film an A- CinemaScore, matching the audience grade received by Solo: A Star Wars Story in 2018. Audience tracking also showed a 71% definite recommendation rating, suggesting that early viewers have responded positively to the big-screen return of the characters first introduced through the Disney+ series.
The film marks the first theatrical Star Wars release since Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker in 2019. Disney is hoping the popularity of Grogu, widely known by fans as Baby Yoda, can help restore momentum to the franchise in cinemas.
A Memorial Day Opening Close to Solo: A Star Wars Story
The opening performance of The Mandalorian and Grogu is drawing comparisons with Solo: A Star Wars Story, another Star Wars release that arrived during Memorial Day weekend.
The new film’s estimated Saturday total of $25.5 million came in slightly above Solo’s $24.6 million Saturday figure. However, Solo ultimately opened with around $103 million over its four day holiday launch, leaving The Mandalorian and Grogu slightly behind unless it receives a stronger than expected finish. Although the result may fall below some of Disney’s largest Star Wars launches, a four-day opening approaching $100 million remains a significant theatrical performance in the post-pandemic marketplace.
Disney+ Subscribers Make Up Much of the Audience
The film appears to be drawing heavily from viewers already familiar with its streaming origins. According to audience data reported during the opening weekend, 68% of ticket buyers for The Mandalorian and Grogu were Disney+ subscribers. This figure was higher than the share of subscribers from any other streaming platform among the movie’s audience. Premium cinema formats have also played an important role in the launch. Large-format screens, including IMax and other premium experiences, accounted for 48% of ticket sales, while IMax alone represented 16% of revenue. Three-dimensional screenings contributed another 8%.
The response among younger viewers was especially positive, with children under 12 giving the movie a 95% positive score.
Obsession Delivers Strong Second Weekend Performance
While Star Wars leads the holiday box office, Obsession is also turning into one of the weekend’s major success stories. The horror film from Focus Features and Blumhouse Atomic Monster earned an estimated $8.35 million on Saturday and is now projected to reach around $27 million over the four-day weekend.
Its three day total is expected to reach $21.5 million, marking a 26% increase from its previous weekend. That is an unusual and impressive rise for a film in its second week of release. The movie’s domestic total is now moving well beyond early expectations, supported by stronger word of mouth and growing interest among younger audiences.
Michael Continues Strong Global Box Office Run
The music biopic Michael is also continuing its successful theatrical performance. The Lionsgate release is now expected to earn more than $26 million across the four day Memorial Day weekend after taking in an estimated $7.75 million on Saturday.
By the end of the holiday period, the film is expected to reach approximately $317.8 million domestically and around $788.8 million worldwide, bringing it closer to the $800 million global milestone.
Memorial Day Box Office Passes $209 Million
Overall, the four-day Memorial Day holiday box office is expected to generate more than $209 million across all films. Although that total is well below last year’s record breaking $330.1 million holiday weekend, the performance of The Mandalorian and Grogu, Obsession and Michael shows that major franchise releases and strong genre titles are still capable of drawing large cinema audiences.
Estimated Memorial Day Box Office Results
| Rank | Film | Estimated 4-Day Total | Weekend Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu | $97M–$98M | Opening weekend |
| 2 | Obsession | $27M | Second weekend |
| 3 | Michael | $26M+ | Fifth weekend |
| 4 | The Devil Wears Prada 2 | $14.6M | Fourth weekend |
| 5 | Sheep Detectives | $11M | Third weekend |
| 6 | Passenger | $10.2M | Opening weekend |
| 7 | Mortal Kombat II | $7.1M | Third weekend |
| 8 | I Love Boosters | $4.6M | Opening weekend |
| 9 | The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | $3.3M | Eighth weekend |
| 10 | Project Hail Mary | $3M | Tenth weekend |
A Key Cinema Test for the Star Wars Franchise
The release of The Mandalorian and Grogu carries significance beyond its opening weekend earnings. After a seven year gap between Star Wars theatrical films, Disney is testing whether characters developed through streaming can successfully bring audiences back to cinemas. The movie also arrives as the studio prepares future Star Wars releases, including Star Wars: Starfighter, which is scheduled for 2027.
For now, the results suggest that Grogu and the Mandalorian still have considerable audience appeal. Whether the movie can build momentum beyond its holiday opening will determine how strong this new phase of Star Wars on the big screen ultimately becomes.